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Investment and consumption demand and short-term equilibrium in the residential development market in Poland
1
SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Submission date: 2025-09-30
Final revision date: 2026-02-21
Acceptance date: 2026-03-13
HIGHLIGHTS
- developers can adjust their supply to current demand conditions
- we find that in Poland owner occupier and investment housing demand differ
- a non-linear penalized spline regression helps to explain housing demand
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Housing demand for newly constructed housing in Poland has observed some changes along the recent economic perturbations that were related to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian war on Ukraine, but despite significant changes in the mortgage interest rate, the market was rather stable. We propose an explanation for this phenomenon. The main forces are 1: relatively flexible supply of housing developers who sell pre-sale contracts, 2: large and experienced developer companies with a pool of construction permits, which can adjust their supply to the current demand and 3: owner occupier and investment demand for housing, which are complements at stable times, and times substitutes at turbulent. In Poland, investment demand is mainly financed by cash, so it is not so sensitive to interest rate shocks.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to thank the Editor and two anonymous Reviewers who helped us clarify our choice of purchase motives and place them into the proper theoretical framework. They also motivated us to clearly explain the data sources, as well as how we determined purchases for owner purposes and for investment purposes. Finally, we added a discussion section and softened our conclusions in accordance to their suggestions.
| eISSN: | 2300-5289 |
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